Category Archives: Scott Siegler

The Chicago Cubs are Officially Playoff Contenders

The Chicago Cubs will be playoff contenders starting immediately.

While this may come as a surprise to you, it shouldn’t. After making the Boston Red Sox winners after 86 years of agony and frustration, Theo Epstein joined the Chicago Cubs organizations as General Manager and President of Baseball Operations; a move that signified a readiness for an even greater test. Four years later, it appears he was up for the challenge.

My prediction here is not just based on the Cubs’ acquiring a baseball sage in manager Joe Maddon and a lefty ace in starter Jon Lester. No, those moves are actually just the finishing touches on three years of shrewd bargaining and meticulous attention to detail that have brought the Cubs to the position they are at right now.

You see, when Epstein took over the Cubs in 2011, it was a completely different situation than when he took over the Red Sox in 2002. The 2002 Boston Red Sox were a ready-to-win roster. After making some minor, yet profound, adjustments, he had won Boston two championships in a five-year time span.

Coming to Chicago, it was clear that it would take more.  And Theo was prepared.

The main indicator of this has been his productivity.

Over the past three years, the Cubs have sat in the basement of the NL Central averaging around 100 losses per season. While this is a pretty sad statistic, the Cubs have also been among the most dynamic teams in baseball during the same time span.

Since 2011, Theo has managed to clear out a slew of huge contracts for declining veterans, lock down promising young stars to long term contracts, and grow what has become the #1 farm system in all of baseball.

That’s a lot of work for just three years, and here’s a breakdown of all of it.

Getting Rid of the Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Pena Contracts

While these three were 35, 33, and 33 years old, respectively, and collectively produced a batting average of .261 in 2011, it was clear that they weren’t the future of the franchise. So why were they getting paid like they were? Well that’s what Theo thought, at least.

While the Cubs were limping their way to a 71-91 finish 2011, these declining veterans collected an astonishing $43,599,997.  To offer some perspective, that’s more than David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, and Yoenis Cespedes combined to make during the 2014 season. Change was necessary, and change is what happened.

Getting rid of Ramirez’s contract and Pena’s contract was easy. All Theo had to do was not resign them. Wisely, he chose not to. After making $10 million with the Cubs in 2011, Pena has managed to hit just 36 home runs since while averaging a negative WAR. And the Brewers quickly snatched up Ramirez with a 3-year $36 million deal and have received only one season of 500+ at bats in return.

Getting rid of Soriano’s contract, however, was a trickier ordeal. However, Theo managed to tap into his Boston roots and capitalize on the Yankees being the Yankees. While many would look down at a fourth place Yankees team with the highest payroll in baseball with no pity, Epstein saw an opportunity; an opportunity to finally unload the Soriano contract. Desperate for anything to help them win, the Yankees were more than willing to cooperate. While he didn’t get much in return, the process of ushering in his new vision for the team was well under way.

Locking the Young and Talented 1B Anthony Rizzo and SS Starlin Castro into Long-Term Contracts

Soon after taking the job in 2011, one of the first orders of business that Epstein oversaw as a Cub was the acquisition the young first basemen who had just had a less than stellar rookie campaign with the San Diego Padres (1 HR, 9 RBI, 46 strikeouts, 128 AB). This player was Anthony Rizzo. And after giving up an unproven pitcher in Andrew Cashner and a minor league player to acquire a 23-year-old unproven prospect, all of the sudden the Cubs had their franchise cornerstone?

Yes. Yes they did. And from that point forward, Rizzo has made Epstein look like a genius with nothing but steady improvements. In fact, the young first baseman’s WAR has improved over the last three seasons from 2.2 to 2.6 to an incredible 5.1 in the 2014 season. To offer some perspective, NL MVP Candidate Andrew McCutchen finished 2014 with a WAR of 6.4.

At the beginning of the 2013 season, after seeing his investment pay out, Epstein rewarded Rizzo with a seven-year, $41 million contract extension that kept him in Chicago’s control through 2019.

In a similar manner, the Cubs inked the talented SS Starlin Castro, who has averaged over 10 home runs and 30 doubles per season while maintaining a .286 career batting average during his five year career with the Cubs to a seven- year contract that would keep him in the Cubs control through 2020.

With two franchise players in place for the long-term, it is now a matter of building around them, which brings up the next aspect of the Cubs organization that Epstein has developed.

Growing the #1 Farm System in All of Baseball

If you don’t believe me, just look at the Cubs depth chart. There you’ll find four rookies, all under the age of 25, who have demonstrated promise at such an early stage of their careers. Outfielder Arismendy Alcantara and second basemen Javier Baez weren’t quite at a major league level when they were given their first dose of the big leagues towards the end of the 2014 season, but still represent lots of potential for the Cubs, whether it be on the field or the trading block. Furthermore, outfield Jorge Soler and starter Kyle Hendricks have already began demonstrating the types of contributions that they can make at the major league level.

In 89 at bats, Soler managed a .292 BA while hitting 5 home runs and driving in 20 RBIs. Projecting this small sample size out to a full season (600 AB) would put Soler in the 30 HR/100 RBI club easily.

Then, there was Hendricks. I had the privilege of seeing the 25-year-old Dartmouth alumnus shut down the New York Mets at Citi Field in a 7 inning, 3 hit, 1 earned run performance, but this was no exceptional start for Hendricks. In fact, Hendricks gave up 2 or fewer runs in 10 of his 13 starts last season and finished with an ERA of 2.46 and a WHIP of 1.08. Again, a small sample size, but it still offers a whole lot to be optimistic about.

The scary things is, even if this wave of prospects doesn’t pan out, the Cubs still have a whole other wave of prospects waiting in the wings, including guys like Addison Russell, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber.

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With these pieces in place, Epstein successfully laid the foundation upon which he plans to build his vision of the Cubs organization.

So far this winter, we’ve seen lots more construction taking place. First, there was the addition of Joe Maddon. Maddon enjoyed great success as the Tampa Bay Rays manager and demonstrated that he is the type of manager that can make a lot out of a little. However, after dishing out big money for prized free agent Jon Lester, the Cubs have made it clear that Maddon won’t need to do that anymore. The Cubs have also added starter Jason Hammel, who posted a solid 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP between the Oakland Athletics and the Cubs in 2014, and catcher Miguel Montero, who has averaged a career .342 OBP.

However, these are not the moves that are turning the organization around. No, this is an organization that has already been on the up and up. These are the finishing touches being made to an organization that Theo Epstein has gutted and built from the ground up. After this most recent wave of additions, it’s clear that the Cubs are now a playoff caliber team. As the pieces continue to fall into place, they’ll only get better.