Hundreds or thousands of years from now every member of the human race may be an androgynous blob of mass and energy, a la the Drej in Titan A.E., with no discernible differences between male and female, but right now there are real (and imagined) differences between the genders. Women will be a part of popular men’s professional sports. But which will be the first to have its deflector shield broken? And how long will it take?

It takes a long time for sweeping societal change, but once it begins, it happens quickly. It works the same in sports: Jackie Robinson broke baseball’s color barrier in 1947 – after 63 years of segregation, but 12 years later every MLB team was integrated.

I readily admit this is going to be an incomplete examination of the issue. I’ll barely talk about the social obstructions surrounding gender integration, and that may be a mountain of an obstacle compared to the molehill that is physical ability, but this is merely a musing to start a discussion.

I think the greatest obstacle to a woman playing a major men’s sport is social perception, but there are hurdles firmly planted in the tangible portion of reality as well. Here are some arguments for each of the three major American sports (sorry, hockey/soccer fans. You may deserve an in-depth analysis on this topic, but I’m not the guy to do it) and my unscientific assessment of what the future will bring.

NFL

Why it will be first:

There are multiple examples of women playing high school and college football as a kicker, and since it is a low-contact position it’s the likeliest spot for a woman to earn playing time. But that’s not the only option.

The examples are rare, but there have been some women playing contact positions with men in college and low-level professional leagues. For example, Shelby Osborne is a 5’6” 140 lb incoming freshman cornerback for Campbellsville University. She sounds small, but if 59 year-old Mike Flynt can play linebacker at Sul Ross State, there is a position for a physically developed, highly athletic young woman. On top of that, many people don’t realize it but there is an all-women full-contact professional football league (actually, there’s three) with more than 40 teams.

Why it won’t:

There are only 32 kickers in the NFL, and those currently employed are annually breaking records for accuracy and distance – resulting, somewhat ironically, in a perpetual undervaluing of their position on draft day. Because of this, even if a young woman proves her ability as a kicking phenom at a high-college level I don’t believe they will be given a realistic chance due to the culture surrounding the most macho American sport.

Yes, there are some women who’ve played college football at positions other than kicker, but there are few on record (I found three, going back to the ‘70s), and nowhere near the highest level of collegiate competition. The physical demands of the sport of American Football at the NFL level is too great to be overcome in any reasonable amount of time.

Verdict:

Never/100+ years. These guys are huge. The physical gap between NFL players and other world-class male athletes is enormous, they’re level 90 Orc Warriors and regular people are basically squirrels.

I think the NFL in its current form will never have a female player. There is too much competition for the undervalued non-contact positions, and with the growing public awareness of long-term health risks associated with the sport I believe American Football in its current form will cease to exist before a female player will play at its highest level.

MLB

Why it will be first:

For one, it doesn’t possess the physical boundaries of football. Further, it has a past of fording the controversy surrounding integration – of which it’s very proud.

When Johnny Manziel (28th round) and Michael Vick (30th) get drafted despite not playing baseball in college and high school, respectively, then the 40 round MLB draft might be 15 rounds longer than needed. However, you would expect a franchise to take a chance on a talented young woman, whenever one is deemed worthy. They may be willing to take this chance because baseball franchises have by far the best developing system for their prospects. Every MLB organization has at least five minor league affiliates (1/3 have six) – this is the best possible training ground for a successful baseball career

It’s hinted in a previous B4andMore article that Little League World Series phenom Mo’ne Davis could lead a trend of female baseball players in the Majors. I believe with her dominating performance and enchanting personality she very well may start a trend of young girls playing with 12-year-old boys on the baseball diamond.

Why it won’t:

Mo’ne Davis may seem a good argument for a female pitcher in the Big Leagues, but at 12 years of age girls are typically more physically developed than boys. I think Davis could certainly be a trailblazer for more young girls to play in the Little League World Series, but in the coming years she will be surpassed physically by her male classmates. There have already been 16 girls to play with the boys in Williamsport other than Davis, and you may have noticed none made it to the Majors.

Verdict:

Second most likely. In the next 50 years a woman will play in a Major League Baseball game; a woman will be drafted in the next 40 years.

Davis said, in an interview with ESPN, her true dream is to play basketball for Geno Auriemma at the University of Connecticut. I believe if she, or any young woman, is to further blaze trails through male-dominated sports, she’s made a good choice for her future sport. In my opinion, basketball is the most likely major sport to have a female join its ranks.

What a perfect segue!

NBA

Why it will be first:

The NBA’s reputation for drafting unrealized potential exists because they’re willing to take chances other sports might not. Further lessening risk, second round picks aren’t guaranteed a contract, making a difficult decision easier. Though the NBA’s developmental league is nowhere near that of baseball’s minor leagues, it is quickly improving.

The NBA has some of the best athletes in the world, but you don’t need to jump out of the gym to perform at a high level for a long time (Paul Pierece, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash). However, the prototype for a barrier-breaking woman in basketball isn’t the 6’8” dominating force that is Brittney Griner. She’s simply not tall or long enough to succeed near the basket in the NBA. Instead, it will be someone more like Candace Parker, a 6’4” guard with an all-around game, possessing uncommon but not unbelievable athleticism (I first learned her name when she won the McDonald’s All-American dunk contest against all-male competition, less than a year after she’d torn her ACL).

Now that we can imagine what she might look like, the biggest reason why she can succeed is simply because the men’s and women’s game is so similar – essentially being as different as the NBA is to FIBA rules. Differences include ball-size, 3-point arc, and a 30-second shot clock – with the right player, these could certainly be overcome.

Against:

Despite not having the physical barriers of football, an average male NBA player would still have multiple advantages over most potential female NBAers: height (and length), strength, and possibly speed.

Candace Parker winning a dunk contest against men (though she clearly completed less difficult dunks) and Brittney Griner slamming basketballs all over her competition is obviously a harbinger of the talent becoming a part of the women’s game. However, the fact these physical feats are still recognized and written about shows how far away the women’s game is from the men’s on an athletic level.

Verdict: I believe there will be a female basketball player playing in a regular season game in the NBA in the next 15 years.

Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, mentioned he was interested in drafting Brittney Griner in the second round in 2013. Griner left only dust and debris in her wake during her time at Baylor as she was clearly the most dominant force in women’s NCAA basketball history. There may not be a better player than her in the next couple decades, but there will be a better NBA prospect. I expect a woman to be drafted by a team in the next 10 years. Though that woman may never actually make a game day roster (think Michael Sam in the NFL) I believe a talented young woman will fully break the next invisible barrier and play real minutes in the NBA in 15 years or less.