AFC West Preview: Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

If the Broncos win they will all but be guaranteed a home playoff game, and be in the driver’s seat for a first round bye. If the Chiefs win they will show the loss to the Raiders on Thursday Night Football was a trap game mishap, and the rest of the football world could start fearing a playoff game in Arrowhead Stadium. Here’s a breakdown of each side of the ball.

When the Broncos Pass: Advantage Broncos

Kansas City allows the least passing yards in the NFL, but there’s more to an effective pass defense than just yardage. Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton has done a fine job covering the weaknesses of his personnel, but the weaknesses are aplenty.

Sutton has effectively cast a shadow over his defense’s deficiencies for the second year in a row, but his unit has only forced 8 turnovers all year, with only 4 interceptions. There is some tremendous talent on defense (Poe, Houston are both probably the second best at their position in the NFL), but there is little talent in the secondary right now.

Peyton Manning threw for the second-least yards he’s thrown all year in the first matchup (week 2), which makes it appear the Chiefs pass defense performed well. In reality Manning had one of his most effective, efficient games of the season. On the road he will have slightly less success, but he will have another good game, and keep an eye on running back C.J Anderson making big catches out of the backfield.

Since Eric Berry (read more under X-factor) won’t be a part of the game, Ron Parker will likely be moved back to safety, where’s he’s pretty solid. That means either an underwhelming corner such as Chris Owens or 3rd round pick Philip Gaines. Whatever unfortunate soul takes the spot, I expect Emmanuel Sanders to dominate the matchup all night long.

When the Chiefs Pass: PUSH

The Chiefs passing game is an extension of their running game. Alex Smith is neither a boon or a detriment to his team, he simply exists. He’s like the ghost runner version of a quarterback, plodding from base to base, never making a mistake, never making a play. There will likely be no mistakes for the Broncos to take advantage of, and nothing for the Chiefs to be proud of. Congratulations, Chiefs fans (like me), you have this guy for another four years.

Demarcus Ware and Von Miller have combined for 19 sacks this season, but only 3 in the last 4 games. Alex Smith has a tendency to hold to ball too long behind a poor pass-blocking offensive line, so they will get a couple Sunday night.

When the Broncos run: Advantage Broncos

C.J. Anderson has never made anyone miss a tackle his entire life, but he can run downhill and break arm tackles – and that’s all the Broncos need against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Kansas City lost their pro-bowl middle linebacker, Derrick Johnson, and his backup, Joe Mays, and have since been patching their run defense with whatever they find in the scrap drawer. Right now those scraps are called James Michael-Johnson and Josh Mauga, and though they have some ability, they’re in over their heads replacing the former all-pro.

I expect Anderson to run effectively, and for offensive coordinator Peyton Manning to stick with the run all game the entire game.

When the Chiefs run: Advantage Chiefs

Jamaal Charles hasn’t been a big play threat in the running game for two years – since Andy Reid took in 2013 Charles has had his two worst yards per carry averages of his career – but he still averages over 5 yards each time he runs. The offensive line is average at run blocking and gives Charles and backup Knile Davis enough room to run effectively. When Alex Smith drops back he’s effectively a third running back, running for a first down 9 times in 35 rushing attempts.

Special Teams: Advantage Chiefs

The Broncos are on their third kicker this season, bringing in former Chief Connor Barth this week to replace the worst field goal percentage kicker in the league. Barth brings the accuracy, but doesn’t have the reputation of a strong leg for kickoffs.

That’s where former Oregon Duck De’Anthony Thomas makes his mark. If he gets his hands on a couple kicks you’ll see him on SportsCenter’s Top 10 when you’re getting ready for work Monday morning. Chiefs kicker Cairo Santos has overcome some rookie jitters to convert 14 consecutive attempts.

Coaching: Chiefs

Peyton Manning is coordinating this offense, and Sutton can’t hide his defense’s inefficiencies any longer. But Andy Reid is a better coach than John Fox, and he has had more time to prepare since the Chiefs got embarrassed on a Thursday night game last week – the extra time off gives the Chiefs the edge.

X-Factor: Eric Berry

The first team all-pro selection found out after last week’s game he likely has lymphona, meaning he’s currently fighting a battle for his life. I expect the Arrowhead crowd and the players in red to rally around their embattled leader, and the effects will be seen on the field.

Prediction:

The Denver Broncos are the better team, and now that they’ve found a serviceable running game, the Super Bowl is once again an attainable goal. However, Arrowhead Stadium, the Eric Berry factor, the extra time to rest, and coming off an embarrassing loss all amounts to the lesser team making enough plays to win this game. I expect the Chiefs to not turn the ball over, keep the game close, and make at least one big play on special teams.

Chiefs: 30

Broncos: 27